breaking: statistics can mislead

posted by tom / March 21, 2006 /

The quote Catherine excerpted below about 80,000 blogs launching per week reminded me of a story I read yesterday: the Register totalled up the societal costs claimed by various pop-economic doomsayers (e.g. the NCAA tournament costs $X billion in lost productivity; failing to recycle bottle caps costs us $Y billion every week). And guess what? It turns out that the sum is more than the total amount of money in the world.

To be fair, I don't think there's any solid economic reason why that can't be true — but it certainly seems doubtful. To think that spending half an hour watching an NCAA tournament game actually introduces real costs to an individual's employer requires a childlike naivete, wherein every workday contains exactly 8 hours of work, all of which must be completed and all of which is relevant to the company's bottom line. I can understand why one would think such aggregate measures are necessary and plausible at a large scale. But realistically, most of these cost estimates probably ignore a lot of naturally-occurring elasticity in order to make their advocates' pet causes seem more important than they actually are.

Comments

naturally-occurring elasticity

Bingo. I've considered offering to get the same amount of work done in fewer hours if they would pay me the same amount of money. But that brings up the awkward haven't-actually-been-working-100%-of-the-time thing...

Posted by: Stanley on March 21, 2006 01:06 PM

Slate had a pretty good debunking of the whole NCAA productivity myth(http://www.slate.com/id/2138333/?nav=tap3), which I always thought was mostly bullshit. Sure, some people may be less productive than normal, but for most of us, it just means that our normal workday slacking is focused on the tournment rather than doing something like commenting on weblogs.

Posted by: Drew on March 21, 2006 02:51 PM

I start ramping up my productivity weeks ahead of the start of the tournament, so I can take a day or two off each week.

While I actually do believe that the tournament may result in lost productivity (after all, employers are not paying their people any less during this time), there are a ton of elective activities that we've engaged in for decades/centuries that have always decreased productivity - and yet we're still here, plugging away.

How much time did the Register spend on that piece?

Posted by: Tom Oakes on March 23, 2006 12:48 AM

Post A Comment

Name


Email Address


URL


Comments


Remember info?



Google Analytics