The scene on the plane.

Wow.

GREAT stuff there.

Okay, forgive the length of this. But it all makes sense in my head.

I agree that the show could end up dragging itself out, avoiding any revelations for as long as possible until it ties its plot into knots. Alias is not an encouraging example on this front.

But Lost is hugely successful. I hope that Abrams now considers his career sufficiently secure that he can write what he wants, rather that what will guarantee another yearlong meal ticket. Hopefully he's got a big board with all the story arcs plotted out, and when it's over, it's over, and we'll get a new show. So far I think the pacing is deliberate but reasonable. There've been only one or two episodes that seemed to have been inserted in reaction to the show's huge success.

I thought last night's episode was good. We got the hatch open, we got the conflict for next season set up (Locke vs. Jack), we got a glimpse of the enemy, and the Charlie relapse plotline was set up (I'm not too excited about this, personally, but you had to see it coming, and his character hasn't had much to do recently). And it was filled with nice touches -- that smoke was creepy, and when you realized that it was drifting out over the water, toward Walt... yeah, that was cool.

Okay. On to the wild and expansive theories. What did we learn last night? Well, the bad guys have a working motorboat. They could presumably get off the island if they wanted. There's something keeping them there, either by luring or binding them. So far we don't know if the drug smugglers or crew of the Black Rock ended up there by island-mediated fate or if they came looking for something. But the latter's mining gear is suggestive, because...

We saw a renewed focus on what's beneath the island. Locke was almost dragged below; the trees were more clearly popping (rather than being torn) up than before; and of course the opened hatch revealed that there's something way, way below.

So what could it be? The clanking noises surrounding Locke's almost-abduction make it seem mechanical; but the numbers and their weird power imply that it's somehow mystical. Couple this with what's been going on in Alias this season -- not that the plotlines will overlap, but Abrams has been indulging in some silly bullshit about a Renaissance era inventor named "Rimbaldi" who drew up plans for machines (all of which seem to look like a ball of strawberry jelly floating on top of a shoehorn) which possess various semi-mystical powers.

So right now, I'm thinking there's some kind of vast contraption under the island, something that, for lack of a better term, I'll call a karma engine. Basically it's a straight-ahead Dark City ripoff, with the caveat that it's zero-sum. Hurley's the clearest example: he's traded all of his regular luck for financial luck (although note that on the island, unable to gain any money, his bad luck seems to have stopped). The plane crash is such a huge luck singularity that it could be interpreted many ways -- was the luck of the dead harvested to preserve the survivors? Has Locke's ability to walk been renewed by Boone's misfortune? Locke did refer to him as a sacrifice demanded by the island, after all.

My guess is that the island's capability to alter the cosmic balance sheet is something that "the others" have realized. It's probably difficult to control -- but Walt is a prodigy in manipulating it. Informed (no doubt by some prophecy) of a crash-landed child's abilities, they kidnapped pregnant Aussie girl, but soon realized her kid wasn't the one. Now they've got Walt and are going to try to use him to bend the island to their purposes (and keep it for themselves).

Ultimately I suspect that Locke, who feels he's more than paid his cosmic dues, will decide it's his right to use the island to improve his life, even if it's at the cost of others and will take the helm of Others, Inc. Stupid noble do-no-harm Jack will naturally oppose him, and we'll have the central conflict complete, as Jack tries to destroy the island's capabilities and Locke fights to stop him.

i think everything you wrote above is good except for the fact that you think abrams is writing anything except what he wants. before lost he had the successful and critically acclaimed felicity and alias, both of which won a bunch of emmys and other awards. he IS writing what he wants. that's why i'm worried.

but neither of those were as huge hits as Lost. David Chase and Joss Whedon both had critically acclaimed shows. But Chase can end the Sopranos how he wants and go make whatever show he'd like immediately after; yes, Whedon got some leeway and got Firefly made (briefly), but it's just not the same, and he probably had a lot more motivation to continue Buffy for as long as he did.

seriously, trust me - abrams has never written anything except what he wanted. i've read i/vs that says he has full control over the production, writing, etc. i have watched every show he's ever made religiously and he's not concerned with making it successful - he just does what he wants. and a lot of the time it works; sometimes it goes downhill, especially after he loses his focus.

Dear Catherine,

Agree with you on many points. Including Hurley. He's a great character -- and a talented actor that breaks so many of the fat and funny comic relief guy stereotypes that I yearn for using him in a serious way.

But I don't think resolution would have been good for the show. Sure, we got bits of it -- Rousseau is certifiable, Charlie is a recidivist, the hatch has a ladder in it leading down down down -- but any more resolution would have felt entirely too rushed. I want entire episodes exploring what's under the hatch and who these others are. Anything less and I don't think the resolution would be satisfying. If this were a mini-series I would probably want slam my head through my television, but I have hopes for the show as a series.

Dear Tom,

Please contact JJ Abrams immediately. And send clippings. And a storyboard.

Misc. Theorizing

The kid-pirates had American accents -- but for some reason I think "The Black Rock" wasn't a slave ship, but a ship full of criminals on their way to an Australian penal colony. Some on other boards are theorizing that the boat was manned by the survivors of the flight, 16 years in the future. If there is a God of Television: "Cathodion, please do not let this be true."

Jin, Sawyer, Michael et al side with Locke and try think exploring the hatch will get Walt back. Jack and Sayid probably try exploring the island some more. Everything becomes much more "Beneath the Planet of the Apes".

Oh, and if a character named Hobbes is introduced I swear I'll turn green with rage.

Typo, penultimate paragraph: "... et al side with Locke and think... " delete try, that's what I get for typing whilst eating.

shirtless sawyer = brilliant!

added bonus prediction: the bad guys are unaware of, or do not possess, the numbers, which are essential for unlocking the island's powers. Keeping the numbers away from Walt will be especially important. Walt + numbers = very bad things.

that would also bring more hurley into the mix! seriously. email jj abrams!

btw, did anybody ever read that awesome rolling stone (i think) article about that deserted island that supposedly has some really secret elaborate treasure set up buried beneath it and people have been trying to excavate it for like 100 years? but the treasure is all like boobie trapped with floodgates and shit and it's really amazing? this is a real thing, right?

yes, it is a real thing. it's like a real-life lost! something creepy buried underneath the island...

that was my initial thinking too, setting up a heroic self-sacrifice from Hurley in order to keep the numbers secret. But they exist other places, too. The hatch is blown up, so that's easy to write off. But weren't they present on the french chick's map? Also, weren't they incorporated into the radio broadcast somehow (I've forgotten)? I think a few people might know them (Jack? Sayeed?), but they're all pretty firmly in the good guy camp.

I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers could be found in a variety of locations and artifacts around the island, setting up mini-plotlines involving the struggle to obtain/destroy them.

ohhh wait. yeah, remembering now. They were on the map, but only Hurley recognized them. So yeah, this will bring him to the front of this struggle. French chick knows em too, but I suspect she'll bite it pretty soon.

for what it's worth, i've also ready many an article where jj abrams swears up and down that what's going on on the island is rooted in real life, earthly explanations. depends on what you think of as real life, i guess...

yeah, we've already got magic numbers, apparitions of the dead and the paralyzed walking. there's at least some mystical element to it all, although it tries to walk the line as closely as possible.

yeah but i mean it may have the appearance of being supernatural (and we're not sure the apparations are anything more than hallucinations; wasn't it just jack's dad, the day he hadn't gotten sleep in 734 hours?)...well, the numbers, i have no idea how they can make that not supernatural. anyway i really hope the fact abrams swears it's all rooted in natural explanations doesn't mean it's the "oh i was having a very natural dream!" thing.

and speaking of the numbers...http://thenumbers.greatestjournal.com/

the numbers are 4 8 15 16 23 42
can you believe hurley got on a flight numbered 8-15?

now, personally, the ending of alias is the sort of spoiler that i enjoy (from TWOP):

When Sydney goes to take out Clifford's power supply, Infected Freak Nadia is there and the only thing left for her and her sister to do is battle with each other. Nadia tries to strangle Sydney with a chain and, surprisingly, Sloane shoots his own daughter to save Sydney and the world. Clifford is safely taken down, Nadia doesn't instantly die, Irina shoots her own sister in the head, Sydney accepts Vaughn's proposal, and Jack lets Irina go. And then, it all wraps up on a day trip to Santa Barbara with Sydney wanting to elope and Vaughn telling Sydney that his name isn't actually Michael Vaughn and it was no accident that she came to him way back in Season One and then WHAM! Their car is sidesmacked by another car and…scene. Way to make us give a shit about next season, JAYBRAMS.

I think Hurley only notices the numbers when in a string. The gate, the flight number, these he doesn't notice. And I think its only Rousseau (noble savage?) that also knows the numbers.

Tom, your explanation reminds me of that one Final Fantasy in which all those big, clunky, seemingly steam-powered machines are run by magic. (Except vice versa, obv.)

i also was thinking that no one has brought up the possibility that somebody aboard the plane caused the plane to crash, instead of it being an accident or the "force" or whatever of the island doing it. maybe somebody knew exactly what they were doing, knew about the island, maybe the black rock people knew about it, maybe crazy french lady, and they all meant to come there for some reason as yet unexplained.

I think that, next season, Lost is going to slowly but steadily turn into the biggest disaster in prime time. I'm sorry, but nobody involved has any clue what is going to happen more than 2 episodes from whatever they're filming. I watched all season as fascinating backstories gave way to silly mysticism and implausible plot twists (and a complete lack of resolution of ANY mystery), and next season is going to be even worse because either a) Abrams will continue to string us along with additional NEW MYSTERIES or b) Abrams will come up with some kind of far-fetched "explanation" for these things (the conflicting things he has been making up off the top of his head all year) that infuriates us--like the "it was all a dream" explanation that is fast becoming the only possible explanation for the events of this season.

Also, WASN'T LOCKE A PHILOSOPHER OR SOMETHING IN REAL LIFE OMG?!!!

i share those concerns too. like, a lot. problem is - abrams's biggest talent is for drawing characters and complex relationships. but HE thinks his biggest talent is making conspiracy-tinged mysteries. and he does have a talent for doing that on a shorter-term basis - did anyone see "the box" episode of felicity? - but more often than not it just spirals out of control. see: multi-episode season finale of felicity; last two seasons of alias; and probably next season of lost.

Great theory about the "luck" rearrangement, i guess you could call it. Anyone think that locke being dragged along by that "smokey" looking monster thing and almost down the hole, that this is symbolic of the island trying to take back his gift of being able to walk?

and why did they never eat the polar bear???!!!